The Police Department database gives a snapshot of what is happening in the Forest Hill area.
First the geography: In the Police database, the Forest Hill Neighborhood runs from the Park to Westover Hills Blvd. and from Forest Hill Ave. to the River:
As you see, this does not include all of the Forest Hill Neighborhood Association area and does include some of the Westover Hills Association area.
Microsoft has a nice view of the area.
Warning: The data below by block are distorted in a few cases by counting only one side of the street on the boundary. For example, the data for the 4400 block of Forest Hill Ave. include only the odd numbers, i.e., those on the north side of the street.
Here are the offense report counts for the Forest Hill Neighborhood for 1/1/00 through 12/30/11, duplicate reports deleted, sorted with the most numerous first. I have highlighted the drug, violent, and weapons offenses for emphasis.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 405 | 29.0% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 210 | 15.1% |
| HIT AND RUN | 113 | 8.1% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 98 | 7.0% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 79 | 5.7% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 67 | 4.8% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 40 | 2.9% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 31 | 2.2% |
| CITY CODE VIOLATIONS | 31 | 2.2% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 30 | 2.2% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/OUTBUILDING | 30 | 2.2% |
| NATURAL DEATH | 22 | 1.6% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 20 | 1.4% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 16 | 1.1% |
| ALL OTHER OFFENSES | 14 | 1.0% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 13 | 0.9% |
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 11 | 0.8% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 11 | 0.8% |
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 11 | 0.8% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 10 | 0.7% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 8 | 0.6% |
| COURT DOCUMENTS | 8 | 0.6% |
| INDECENT EXPOSURE | 7 | 0.5% |
| TAMPERING WITH AUTO | 6 | 0.4% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 6 | 0.4% |
| IMPERSONATION | 5 | 0.4% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 5 | 0.4% |
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 5 | 0.4% |
| FORGERY BY CHECK | 5 | 0.4% |
| SHOPLIFTING | 4 | 0.3% |
| DRUNKENNESS | 4 | 0.3% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 3 | 0.2% |
| DUI, ALCOHOL | 3 | 0.2% |
| FORGERY/COUNTERFEITING/ALL OTHER | 3 | 0.2% |
| FOUND PROPERTY | 3 | 0.2% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON | 3 | 0.2% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 3 | 0.2% |
| FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME | 3 | 0.2% |
| SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING | 3 | 0.2% |
| UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE | 3 | 0.2% |
| EMBEZZLEMENT | 2 | 0.1% |
| RUNAWAY | 2 | 0.1% |
| THEFT OF MOPED/OTHER VEHICLE TYPE | 2 | 0.1% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS | 2 | 0.1% |
| CRUELTY TO ANIMALS | 2 | 0.1% |
| KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION | 2 | 0.1% |
| OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE | 2 | 0.1% |
| FALSE INFORMATION TO POLICE | 1 | 0.1% |
| PROMISCUOUS SHOOTING | 1 | 0.1% |
| BURGLARY | 1 | 0.1% |
| ROBBERY/ATM | 1 | 0.1% |
| RECOVERED VEHICLE-STOLEN OTHER JURIS. | 1 | 0.1% |
| ROBBERY/BANK | 1 | 0.1% |
| BOMB THREAT | 1 | 0.1% |
| ROBBERY/CARJACKING | 1 | 0.1% |
| THROW MISSILE AT OCCUPIED DWELLING | 1 | 0.1% |
| LIQUOR LAW VIOLATIONS | 1 | 0.1% |
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 1 | 0.1% |
| FORCIBLE RAPE | 1 | 0.1% |
| DEATH INVESTIGATION (MATTER PENDING) | 1 | 0.1% |
| SEXUAL BATTERY | 1 | 0.1% |
| DEATH BY DROWNING | 1 | 0.1% |
| LOST / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 0.1% |
| POSSESSION OF BURGLARY TOOLS | 1 | 0.1% |
| ACCIDENTAL DEATH | 1 | 0.1% |
| THREATEN BODILY HARM | 1 | 0.1% |
| FRAUD/FORGERY INCIDENT | 1 | 0.1% |
| THROW MISSILE AT OCCUPIED VEHICLE | 1 | 0.1% |
| AGGR ASSAULT ATTEMPTED MURDER | 1 | 0.1% |
| PURSE SNATCHING | 1 | 0.1% |
| STALKING | 1 | 0.1% |
| WARRANT SERVED FROM OTHER JURISDICTION | 1 | 0.1% |
| SUDDEN DEATH | 1 | 0.1% |
| SUICIDE | 1 | 0.1% |
| PICKPOCKET | 1 | 0.1% |
| NON-REPORTABLE OFFENSES | 1 | 0.1% |
| Grand Total | 1395 |
You might notice the paucity of promiscuous shooting reports. If you live near the park, you know there's been a fair amount of gunfire, especially before they installed the gates.
The Good News here is that the most numerous offenses are nonviolent. Property crimes dominate the list, as one might expect for a residential area. In fact, counting down the list, 84.3% of the reports are in property crime categories reported more frequently than the most frequent violent offense, simple assault.
The Bad News is that our most common crime is almost completely preventable.
*** Rant Begins ***
By far the most common offense (29% in this time frame) is "Theft from Motor Vehicle." That crime (and much of the property destruction that reflects broken car windows) would entirely disappear if we (and the people who visit in our neighborhood, see below) would lock our stuff in the trunk or take it into the house. Indeed, our bad habits in this respect have the unfortunate effect of chumming the neighborhood to attract criminals.
This is a particularly clear demonstration of the general proposition (one you will see stated elsewhere in these pages) that "they" (being the cops, the City, the federal government, the schools, or anybody else you choose to blame) are not responsible for solving our crime problem; we are the front line.
*** Rant Ends ***
Aside from the low rate of violent crime in our neighborhood, the Very Good News is that the crime rate is decreasing:
The dark blue line is the raw count of offense reports by year. The orange line is the computer's linear fit to those data. There's no particular reason to expect the numbers to lie on a straight line. Nonetheless, the R2 value tells us that the time variable explains over 63% of the variance in the number of reports. To the extent the line gives a decent measure of the trend, it shows a decrease of about 8.2 offense reports per year (i.e., 5.6% of the initial count per year).
Much of the decrease has been driven by a decrease in thefts from motor vehicles.
The blue curve there is the same as the one in the graph above, a count by year of the total number of offense reports in the neighborhood. The red curve is the thefts from motor vehicle. See below for one reason for the decrease in thefts from vehicles after 2006-07.
Turning to location, here are the blocks with the most offense reports:
| Theft from MV | ||||
| Block | Count | % | Count | % of Block |
| 4200 Block RIVERSIDE DR | 248 | 17.8% | 110 | 44.4% |
| 4100 Block RIVERSIDE DR | 74 | 5.3% | 41 | 55.4% |
| 4400 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 64 | 4.6% | 11 | 17.2% |
| 4800 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 39 | 2.8% | 5 | 12.8% |
| 4100 Block HILLCREST ROAD | 37 | 2.7% | 9 | 24.3% |
| 4700 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 34 | 2.4% | 3 | 8.8% |
| 4500 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 34 | 2.4% | 3 | 8.8% |
| 4700 Block KING WILLIAM ROAD | 32 | 2.3% | 14 | 43.8% |
| 4100 Block STONEWALL AVE | 32 | 2.3% | 12 | 37.5% |
| 4400 Block STONEWALL AVE | 31 | 2.2% | 12 | 38.7% |
| 1800 Block W 42ND ST | 28 | 2.0% | 6 | 21.4% |
| 4700 Block NEW KENT ROAD | 25 | 1.8% | 11 | 44.0% |
| Grand Total | 1395 | 405 | 29.0% | |
| Mean | 15.3 | |||
| Median | 10 | |||
| SD | 27.8 | |||
For a complete list, sorted by block, follow this link.
The Top Five Blocks
First: 4200 Riverside Drive (17.8% of the reports).
A graph showing the numbers for the top five blocks emphasizes how far out of line the count is at the 4200 block:
Forty-four percent of the offense reports in the block are thefts from motor vehicles. Another 23% are property destruction, such as broken car windows where there was nothing to steal.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 110 | 44% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 56 | 23% |
| CITY CODE VIOLATIONS | 31 | 13% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 8 | 3% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 7 | 3% |
| ALL OTHER OFFENSES | 5 | 2% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 5 | 2% |
| INDECENT EXPOSURE | 4 | 2% |
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 3 | 1% |
| OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE | 2 | 1% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 2 | 1% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 1 | 0% |
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 0% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/OUTBUILDING | 1 | 0% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 1 | 0% |
| COURT DOCUMENTS | 1 | 0% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 1 | 0% |
| RECOVERED VEHICLE-STOLEN OTHER JURIS. | 1 | 0% |
| HIT AND RUN | 1 | 0% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 1 | 0% |
| CRUELTY TO ANIMALS | 1 | 0% |
| LIQUOR LAW VIOLATIONS | 1 | 0% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 1 | 0% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 1 | 0% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 1 | 0% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 1 | 0% |
| Grand Total | 248 |
The location code descriptions of the thefts from motor vehicles in this block show that 65% are in a parking lot.
| LOCATION_CODE_DESC | Count |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 71 |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 27 |
| OTHER / UNKNOWN | 6 |
| RESIDENCE (SINGLE UNIT) | 2 |
| LAKE / WATERWAY | 2 |
| GROCERY / SUPERMARKET | 1 |
| LIQUOR STORE | 1 |
| Grand Total | 110 |
Some of the entries (notably the lake, liquor store, and grocery) suggest that the officers don't pay a lot of attention to the location code.
All three drug reports are in "parking lot/garage." Likewise 32 of the 56 private property destruction reports are from the parking lot, with another 20 on the street.
The data comport with our experience: The nexus of the problem in this block is the 42d St. parking lot of James River Park.
We have Good News here: The new gates (when they are closed) largely eliminate the nighttime disorder in the park. Most of the car breakins have been in the lower lot, presumably because the area is harder to see from the road. In 2006, Ralph White and his folks blocked off most of the parking spaces there and Parks began closing the gates on weekdays.
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The results were helpful.
This led to a new normal of about 6 per year, vs. the earlier normal of double that.
That said, notice that even if we remove all the thefts from motor vehicle and property destruction reports, we are left with a rate that is well above the average for the neighborhood and even above the rate in the highest rate commercial block, 4800 Forest Hill. This very high rate in a residential neighborhood, where one side of the street is trees, suggests that the lowlives who are chummed into the neighborhood by the stuff left in cars are causing other problems.
Second: 4100 block of Riverside Drive (5.3% of the reports).
The 4100 Block of Riverside runs a distant second to the 4200 block but the problem there, again, is thefts from motor vehicles
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 41 | 55% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 11 | 15% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 4 | 5% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 4 | 5% |
| NATURAL DEATH | 2 | 3% |
| ALL OTHER OFFENSES | 2 | 3% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 2 | 3% |
| HIT AND RUN | 2 | 3% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 1 | 1% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 1 | 1% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 1 | 1% |
| POSSESSION OF BURGLARY TOOLS | 1 | 1% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 1 | 1% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 1 | 1% |
| Grand Total | 74 |
in the parking lot of James River Park.
| LOCATION_CODE_DESC | Count |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 48 |
| OTHER / UNKNOWN | 12 |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 8 |
| FIELD / WOODS | 4 |
| RESTAURANT | 1 |
| PHARMACY/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL | 1 |
| Grand Total | 74 |
The problem continues, despite the recent (and most welcome) attention to the parking lot by our bicycle officer, Stacy Rogers.
Third: 4400 block of Forest Hill Ave. (4.6% of the reports). Note that the data here cover only the church and commercial properties on the north side of the street.
The numbers 4400 Forest Hill show a different pattern
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| NATURAL DEATH | 13 | 20% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 11 | 17% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 7 | 11% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 4 | 6% |
| HIT AND RUN | 3 | 5% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 3 | 5% |
| UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE | 3 | 5% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 3 | 5% |
| KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION | 2 | 3% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 2 | 3% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 2 | 3% |
| SUDDEN DEATH | 1 | 2% |
| TAMPERING WITH AUTO | 1 | 2% |
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 1 | 2% |
| EMBEZZLEMENT | 1 | 2% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 1 | 2% |
| BOMB THREAT | 1 | 2% |
| SEXUAL BATTERY | 1 | 2% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 1 | 2% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON | 1 | 2% |
| ACCIDENTAL DEATH | 1 | 2% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 1 | 2% |
| Grand Total | 64 |
Past looks at this block showed that most of the reports came from the nursing home at 4403.
| In the past, the database showed the actual address of each
report except where there was a reason, e.g., sex crime, to just
report the block. In those cases, the addresses showed
with the last two digits as XX, e.g., 44XX. They now
report all the addresses with the last two digits as XX.
They have not articulated any reason for concealing this
information from the public. Sigh! We can expect that the major problem in this block continues to be the nursing home but the current data cannot show that. |
Indeed, there are only four structures on the north side of this block: the church, two medical offices, and the nursing home. We just don't see many assaults, kidnappings, or sexual batteries in churches or medical offices. So even without the old data we could infer that the nursing home is the problem in this block.
The natural deaths among the patients at the nursing home probably are not a problem for the neighborhood. Some of the other, rough stuff, should be a concern.
Fourth: 4800 Forest Hill Ave. (2.8%) (again, just the north half of the street).
Ordinarily, one would expect the center of disorder to be the commercial district. In our neighborhood, the anomalies of the Park and the nursing home push the highest block in the commercial district down to fourth.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| HIT AND RUN | 6 | 15% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 5 | 13% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 4 | 10% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 4 | 10% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 3 | 8% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 2 | 5% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 2 | 5% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 2 | 5% |
| DUI, ALCOHOL | 2 | 5% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 2 | 5% |
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 1 | 3% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 1 | 3% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 1 | 3% |
| SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING | 1 | 3% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 1 | 3% |
| FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME | 1 | 3% |
| EMBEZZLEMENT | 1 | |
| Grand Total | 39 |
Fifth: 4100 Block of Hillcrest Rd.
Again, thefts from motor vehicles.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 14 | 38% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 9 | 24% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 9 | 24% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 2 | 5% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 2 | 5% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 1 | 3% |
| Grand Total | 37 |
| LOCATION_CODE_DESC | Count |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 19 |
| RESIDENCE (SINGLE UNIT) | 9 |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 9 |
| Grand Total | 37 |
Most of that looks to be the work of lowlives who were chummed into the neighborhood by the parking lot.
CONCLUSIONS
See elsewhere for an analysis of the drug problems near our neighborhood. Of course, the drug dealing and other disorder in the nearby apartment complexes contribute to the property and other crime in our peaceful neighborhood (and in the Park). Here is what a Justice Department Monograph says on that subject:
Drug dealing in apartment complexes can attract other nuisance behavior that diminishes the residents' quality of life, such as loitering; littering (including drug paraphernalia and used condoms); trespassing; prostitution (including illegal sexual activity on the property, in nearby yards, in alleys, or in driveways); drug use; abandoned vehicles; speeding vehicles; parking problems; unwanted additional foot, car and bicycle traffic in residential neighborhoods; public drinking; public urination; gang formation; graffiti (establishing turf ownership of a drug market); assaults; auto theft; auto breakins; residential and commercial burglaries; possession of and trafficking in stolen property; weapons violations (including gun possession and gun trafficking); robberies; drive-by shootings; or other violent crime (including homicide). This helps explain why successfully tackling a drug market can bring about substantial decreases in crime in the surrounding area.
These Forest Hill data suggest (at least) three conclusions:
-
We are our biggest crime problem (for leaving stuff in our vehicles);
-
The park is our next biggest crime problem (mostly car breakins and other efforts by the folks who come to our neighborhood to break into cars);
-
The nursing home needs a close looking over.